Dehnal’s Oscars Forecast

This year’s Academy Awards, hosted by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, feature two of the biggest films of last year – Barbie and Oppenheimer – up for contention for several Academy Awards. The Awards, per usual, feature critically acclaimed films, including the winner of last year’s Palme d’Or Anatomy of a Fall. Although I have not had the opportunity to see many of these films as many films released last December theatrically and most films are not even available to purchase digitally (let alone stream), here is my breakdown of what I think will win each major Academy Award come the night of the 96th Academy Awards on March 10th as well as the occasional comment on my predictions.

Best Actor in a Leading Role:

• Bradley Cooper – Maestro
• Colman Domingo – Rustin
• Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
• Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
• Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

Cillian Murphy has won most of the major lead role acting awards, winning at the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, and the SAG-AFTRA awards. Although Paul Giamatti certainly had a chance by winning over Murphy at the Critics’ Choice Awards, Murphy’s win at the last awards I mentioned cements his win in my opinion. If he wins, it’s definitely a deserved win – I feel Murphy gave, by far, the best performance in Oppenheimer.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:

• Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
• Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
• Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
• Ryan Gosling – Barbie
• Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things

I sense another win for Oppenheimer. Robert Downey Jr. has won Best Supporting Actor at every major film awards ceremony so far this year, and, considering these awards influence the final Oscar wins (as bad as that sounds) as the award season progresses, Robert Downey Jr. had to have been a no-brainer decision for the voters at the Academy.

That said, I’m disappointed that Ryan Gosling will not win for Barbie. I feel that he delivered a better performance there than Downey Jr. did for Oppenheimer. Following the film’s major losses at the Golden Globes (just two wins – and one was for Box Office Achievement, which has no equivalent at the Oscars and is just a dumb award anyway), there is no way Gosling is going to surge to the win.

Best Actress in a Leading Role:

• Annette Bening – Nyad
• Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
• Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
• Carey Mulligan – Maestro
• Emma Stone – Poor Things

It is somewhat hard to call this race as both Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone have won their respective acting awards this season. I wouldn’t be surprised if they decided to give Lily Gladstone the Oscar especially since she is the first Native American to be nominated for an actress category (once again, I really hate to say that because Gladstone is a fantastic actress, if her performance in Kelly Reichardt’s Certain Women is anything to go by), but it also would not be surprising if Emma Stone won. Considering Emma Stone won at the Golden Globes (Gladstone also won there), the Critics’ Choice Awards, and the BAFTAs, I believe that she will win for Poor Things, but don’t be surprised if Lily Gladstone goes on to win at the Academy Awards come next Sunday.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:

• Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
• Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
• America Ferrera – Barbie
• Jodie Foster – Nyad
• Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

If there is one Oscar The Holdovers will net, it will most definitely be Best Supporting Actress for Da’Vine Joy Randolph. She has won every single Supporting Actress award this awards season so far, from the Golden Globes to the BAFTA Awards to the SAG-AFTRA Awards.

America Ferrera’s nomination was quite surprising (no doubt done for her riveting speech in Barbie) – but there is no way she wins. If there’s one actress who does not deserve to win, it is Emily Blunt for Oppenheimer. She gives a decent performance, but Christopher Nolan’s writing of her character really limits her impact on the film. It isn’t her fault, but her range is limited regardless. Dare I say it, but Florence Pugh in the same film would have been a better choice for Best Supporting Actress (though not by much) because she has at least a bit more of a character.

Best Cinematography:

• Edward Lachman – El Conde
• Rodrigo Prieto – Killers of the Flower Moon
• Matthew Libatique – Maestro
• Hoyte von Hoytema – Oppenheimer
• Robbie Ryan – Poor Things

Having won at the Critics’ Choice Awards and the BAFTAs already, Hoyte von Hoytema will no doubt win for Oppenheimer, though I do find it disappointing that Simon Beaufils isn’t nominated for Anatomy of a Fall because his work is fantastic in that film too.

Best Costume Design:

• Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
• Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
• Napoleon (Janty Yates & Dave Crossman)
• Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
• Poor Things (Holly Waddington)

An oddly tough race to call here: Poor Things won at the BAFTAs in this category, but Barbie had won at the Critics’ Choice Awards. I believe that Barbie will win because of how many different costumes there were for all the Barbies and Kens in the film, but I would not be surprised if Poor Things won for its more old-fashioned costume design, especially considering the costumes that Emma Stone dons in that film.

Best Film Editing:

• Anatomy of a Fall (Laurent Sénéchal)
• The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
• Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
• Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
• Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)

This award will certainly go to Jennifer Lame for Oppenheimer. There is a bit of a joke going around that the Academy likes the movies with the most editing, not the best editing, and Oppenheimer would definitely win on that account. It never even gives you a moment to breathe! Lame also won at the BAFTAs and Critics’ Choice Awards for her work on that film, so she will most definitely win an Oscar for Oppenheimer, too.

That said, I wish Anatomy of a Fall could be recognized for its editing because it really just makes the film work as well as it does to cast doubt one second and make you certain another second on the case that is the center of that film.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

• Golda (Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue)
• Maestro (Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell)
• Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel)
• Poor Things (Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston)
• Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé)

Despite some fantastic old-age makeup near the end of Oppenheimer, I believe Poor Things will win in this category, especially as it won a BAFTA for this category. It would not be surprising if the Oscars wanted to give Maestro an Oscar in this category simply due to the look of Leonard Bernstein in the film.

Best Original Score:

• Laura Karpman – American Fiction
• John Williams – Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
• Robbie Robertson – Killers of the Flower Moon
• Ludwig Göransson – Oppenheimer
• Jerskin Fendrix – Poor Things

Because he has won all season, I feel Ludwig Göransson will win the Oscar for Oppenheimer. You cannot doubt the impact that “Can You Hear The Music?” has had on audiences. However, because John Williams was not nominated for his score in Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny at any of the other major awards this season, I feel that his push for an Oscar casts some serious doubt on Göransson’s win, especially considering Willams’s advanced age and his status as the oldest Oscar nominee with this nomination. Don’t be surprised if John Williams wins.

Best Original Song:

• “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot; Diane Warren)
• “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie; Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt)
• “It Never Went Away” (American Symphony; Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson)
• “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” (Killers of the Flower Moon; Scott George)
• “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie; Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell)

I believe that Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell will win for “What Was I Made For?” because the Academy loves sappy ballads, and that is exactly what “What Was I Made For?” is, but “I’m Just Ken” winning at the Critics’ Choice Awards puts some doubt here. Either way, I think Barbie will win an Oscar here, considering it netted Best Original Song at the Golden Globes (“What Was I Made For?” won there) and the Critics’ Choice Awards.

I’m pretty disappointed by the fact that “Dance the Night”, also from Barbie, is not nominated. I feel that was a more effective song than the other nominees that Barbie garnered, and it is certainly a much better pick than the generic dance song “The Fire Inside” or “It Never Went Away.”

Best Production Design:

• Barbie (Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer)
• Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fisk and Adam Willis)
• Napoleon (Arthur Max and Elli Griff)
• Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong and Claire Kaufman)
• Poor Things (James Price, Shona Heath, and Zsuzsa Mihalek)

Barbie won at the Critics’ Choice Awards, but Poor Things won at the more recent BAFTAs, so I have the feeling Poor Things wins this category at the Oscars. I would definitely give Barbie a chance to win this Oscar this coming weekend, however, simply because it has also won an award for this at another awards ceremony.

Best Sound:

• The Creator (Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic)
• Maestro (Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic)
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor)
• Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell)
• The Zone of Interest (Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn)

I have the feeling Oppenheimer will win here simply for its ridiculously loud sound mix (those TikToks about how loud the atom bomb was is a reflection of that), and the dialogue isn’t as poorly mixed like in some of Christopher Nolan’s other films. But because of that, I would not be surprised if it didn’t win in this category. I call this award for Oppenheimer so far, but The Zone of Interest did win at the BAFTAs in this category.

Best Visual Effects:

• The Creator (Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould)
• Godzilla Minus One (Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima)
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek)
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould)
• Napoleon (Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould)

If you’ve heard anything about Godzilla Minus One, you’ve no doubt heard about the quality of the film on such a small budget, and, secondly, that its visual effects approach Hollywood-level filmmaking on a fraction of the budget. Because the Academy loves underdog stories (Rocky won Best Picture in 1977), I think that Godzilla Minus One will get an extra push to win its Oscar for that alongside its great visual effects (judging from the trailer anyway).

Best Original Screenplay:

• Justine Triet & Arthur Harari – Anatomy of a Fall
• David Hemingson – The Holdovers
• Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer – Maestro
• Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik – May December
• Celine Song – Past Lives

Okay, we’ve made it to the major awards now. Because it won the Best Screenplay award at the Golden Globes (over Barbie and Oppenheimer) and the Best Original Screenplay award at the BAFTAs, I think that Anatomy of a Fall will win Best Original Screenplay, an Oscar I feel is very much well-deserved. Granted, Anatomy of a Fall is one of the few nominees I’ve been able to actually see by this point, but oh, well.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

• Cord Jefferson – American Fiction
• Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach – Barbie
• Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
• Tony McNamara – Poor Things
• Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

This is a very hard race to call: American Fiction won at the BAFTAs, Barbie won at the Critics’ Choice Awards, and Christopher Nolan, who has never won an Oscar before, could win for Oppenheimer. I feel because Nolan has never won an Oscar before and Oppenheimer is written in the first-person, I think that Oppenheimer will win for Best Adapted Screenplay.

Small tangent here: How is Maestro not in the Adapted Screenplay category even though it is based on Leonard Bernstein’s life? And Barbie is hardly an Adapted Screenplay at all! It’s like if you nominated Quentin Tarantino for Kill Bill because it takes heavy influence from Lady Snowblood (or really any of Tarantino’s films). Both films take something and make something totally original out of it.

Best Animated Feature Film:

• Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki – The Boy and the Heron
• Peter Sohn and Denise Ream – Elemental
• Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary – Nimona
• Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz – Robot Dreams
• Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal – Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Another year, another snub at the Oscars – none of these films are nominated for any other Oscars, and this is despite Joe Hisaishi and Daniel Pemberton being nominated for Best Original Score (for The Boy and the Heron and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, respectively) at various awards ceremonies this year.

This is another tough race to call because both the aforementioned films have won Best Animated Feature at other ceremonies. The Boy and the Heron won at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, while Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse won at the Critics’ Choice Awards, the Annie Awards (an awards ceremony dedicated solely to animated media), and the Producers Guild of America Awards. For me, it’s a total coin toss as to who will win. The previous Spider-verse installment won Best Animated Feature, and Hayao Miyazaki has not won an Oscar since Spirited Away in 2003. Because of this, I think The Boy and the Heron will win this Oscar.

Best International Feature Film:

• Io Capitano
• Perfect Days
• Society of the Snow
• The Teachers’ Lounge
• The Zone of Interest

Had France submitted Anatomy of a Fall for their submission to this category this year, this would be a much harder race to call, but because it wasn’t, The Zone of Interest will easily win this award because it’s nominated for more Oscars than any of the other films in this category.

Best Directing:

• Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall
• Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
• Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
• Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
• Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

Christopher Nolan has been nominated for a Best Directing Oscar before: for Dunkirk. Notably, he has not won an Oscar before. He has won across the board at the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice Awards, the BAFTAs, and the Directors Guild of America Awards. Nolan will win for Best Director at this year’s Academy Awards for Oppenheimer. He is personally not my pick (for those curious, I think Justine Triet is a better pick), but he is going to win hands-down.

Best Picture:

• American Fiction
• Anatomy of a Fall
• Barbie
• The Holdovers
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer
• Past Lives
• Poor Things
• The Zone of Interest

Poor Things may have won Best Musical or Comedy Motion Picture at the Golden Globes, but Oppenheimer won for Best Drama Motion Picture (and that award was the last one presented there). Oppenheimer has otherwise won across the board at the other major awards ceremonies – at the Critics’ Choice Awards, the BAFTAs, and the Producers Guild of America Awards – and if my picks are anything to go by, Oppenheimer sweeps the night with the most Oscars and thus will come out on top for Best Picture at this year’s Academy Awards.

Final Breakdown:

With all that said and done, here is a brief rundown of what I think will win at the Oscars come this weekend. Oppenheimer will come out on top as the big winner of the night. It will win 9 Oscars: for Best Actor (Cillian Murphy), Best Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Original Score (Ludwig Göransson), Best Sound, Best Adapted Screenplay (Christopher Nolan), Best Directing (Christopher Nolan), and Best Picture. 

Poor Things will win 3 Oscars: for Best Actress (Emma Stone), Best Makeup and Hairstyling, and Best Production Design. Barbie will win two Oscars: for Best Costume Design and Best Original Song (“What Was I Made For?”). The Holdovers will win Best Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph), Anatomy of a Fall will win Best Original Screenplay (Justine Triet and Arthur Harari), The Boy and the Heron will win Best Animated Feature Film and net Hayao Miyazaki a second Oscar, The Zone of Interest will win Best International Feature Film, and, last but not least, Godzilla Minus One will win Best Visual Effects.