Prediction markets have introduced a new avenue for 18-year-olds to trade on sports. Prediction markets, like Kalshi and Polymarket, exploded in popularity after winning a legal battle that allowed them to expand into sports and other markets.
Prediction markets offer “event contracts,” mostly on a yes-or-no basis. Each contract is priced between 0 cents and $1, with winning contracts ending at a $1 value and losing contracts falling to 0 cents. This structure allows people 18 and older to trade on the market.
These prediction markets have been steadily growing since the fall of 2024. Kalshi alone boasted a notional trading volume of $4.13 billion during the week of May 4, 2026. This growth has also been driven by Gen Z entering the space. A Northwestern Mutual study states that 32% of Gen Zers are currently invested in or considering sports betting or prediction markets.
The growth of prediction markets has coincided with increased interest among Gen Z. The American Psychological Association said in a 2023 article that “Evidence is growing to suggest that young people, especially boys and men, are among those particularly vulnerable to gambling addiction.”
Critics often point to 18-to-20-year-olds in these markets and the similarity between these markets and sports gambling as a cause for concern. They have created a space with a different framework than traditional casino rules, but it seems very similar.
Prediction markets differ because the contract value is set based on what participants are willing to buy and sell. These prediction markets are also often regarded as forecasting and decision-support tools. Supporters argue that prediction markets provide insight into public opinion because participants have money at stake.
When asked whether prediction markets were more like gambling or investing, Simon Marsh, a digital assets GTM strategist, said, “These markets are more like gambling websites for the average person … however, if you are capable of doing difficult things, it is more like investing.”
Marsh said he has “engaged personally within prediction markets and traded over $100,000 in volume over the last six months.”
If you or someone you know is struggling with a gambling addiction, help is available through counseling, support groups and the national helpline at 1-800-662-HELP.
